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Simon

The singularity: Brought to you by Kleenex

This past week, Microsoft announced that it will help bring free wireless to Portland, Oregon as a start to a new initiative it aims to roll out to other municipalities. In exchange, the software giant everyone loves to hate will get traffic to its MSN properties, and advertising revenue.

This isn't the first time we've heard about ad-supported wi-fi. Earlier this year, Google entered the arena with a similar proposal for San Francisco.

This after Google began monetizing its web properties--and other people's (including Betterhumans')--with search and contextual advertising, in the process going from a search engine everyone used, to a massive revenue-generating machine that everyone wanted a piece of--shares closed yesterday at $498.79.

All of this is part of an interesting trend. As we move further towards an information-based society, advertising has proliferated, with advertising support being the one revenue model that seems able to support free services such as search engines and web publications. With the notable exception of dating sites and porn sites, there are few online services for which people are willing to pay a subscription fee.

I believe this reflects the intangibility of such offerings, and some underlying sociological and psychological law. As the degree to which an item's tangibility and essentiality decreases, the amount people will pay for it goes down, and the amount of advertising needed to support it goes up. So it should come as no surprise that as the number of unessential, intangible information products go up--think YouTube, which sold recently for more than a billion dollars--so too will the amount of advertising. 

All of this suggests that Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns forecasts not only an exponential increase in the power and pervasiveness of information technology, but also in the amount and pervasiveness of advertising. In fact, the technological singularity may be funded by advertising. Accelerating change, brought to you by Kleenex.

One caveat here is that I work in the advertising industry, so my perspective may be skewed. But I don't think in any way that invalidates the observation.

Some might point out, however, that people are willing to pay for high-value, intangible informational items such as prestigious journals. But the reality is, the bulk of revenue for such journals comes from institutions, and less frequently by individual professionals. And in both cases, they are business write-offs, meaning the amount people pay for them does not represent their true dollar value. 

So what does it all mean? Well, for one thing, it's starting to feel as if there's more advertising in the world than actual products, although this obviously can't be true. But I think it would be interesting to explore how the ratio between advertising spending and revenue from the purchase of goods and services has changed over time. 

One thing's for sure: advertising isn't going away. Perhaps the best we can hope for is a high-degree of advertising quality, honesty and usefulness. The last thing anyone wants, if advertising growth paces accelerating technological change, is more bad beer commercials.

Published Saturday, November 18, 2006 7:03 PM by Simon

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Abolitionist wrote on November 19, 2006 8:31 PM

We all want access to the information of what is available - so advertising is useful.

At the same time, we all know that advertising exploits the human attributional system - and we all want to be free from the manipulation of businesses with a profit motive.

How can we improve advertising quality and separate the usefulness of advertising from the subversive aspects? - IMO, this knowledge will greatly improve our society/culture.

 

Afn wrote on November 20, 2006 7:20 AM

The value of information drops over time to zero. As we move tword a larger information economy, the value of individual information drops to close to nothing.

Google's advertising model works in 2006, but as technology increases, if and when  AGI level inteligence works, most advertising and commerical products will be finished in the marketplace.

There might be a market for buying and selling custom AGI mindfiles, but I think AGI would take advantage of distributed networking and find a node with the information it needs without paying for it.

The holy grail will be self programming computers. Once we figure out how to bootstrap the computer to write and understand it's own code, the same processes will be applied to the rest of the society with world changing effects.

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About Simon

I aim to understand, apply and develop science, technology and communications to achieve positive change. To this end, I am the owner and operator of Betterhumans, which I founded in 2002. I also work in interactive healthcare marketing, helping pharmaceutical and other healthcare organizations effectively use interactive technologies. Currently, I'm also working part-time on a masters degree at the University of Toronto in the history and philosophy of science and technology.
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