As
mentioned previously, I'll be on a panel this Saturday to discuss the issue of whether machines will make humans obsolete. I've
learned that my copanelists will be Jun Luo, professor of cognitive science and computer science, and John Vervaeke, professor of philosophy. I wanted to outline my position and get feedback from the Betterhumans community about my approach, as well as any information about Luo and Vervaeke that might be useful. Here's my bullet-point approach:
- Compared to today’s machines, two things give humans an advantage: our intelligence and our physical dexterity
- Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence threaten our dominance in these areas
- In robotics:
- The UN World Robotics survey for 2004 showed continuing rapid growth in robot purchases worldwide
- Worldwide investment in industrial robots was up 19% in 2003
- In first half of 2004, orders for robots were up another 18% to the highest level ever recorded
- Worldwide growth between 2004-2007 is forecast at an average annual rate of about 7%
- There are 600,000 household robots currently in use, with several million predicted to go into use within the next few years
- In artificial intelligence:
- Advances are occurring rapidly in both computer hardware and artificial intelligence
- On the hardware front, computer processing power has grown exponentially since the early 1900s
- There is no known reason why such trends shouldn’t continue for at least the next 50 years, which has significant implications
- Within about 25 years, $1000 will get you a computer with the computing power of the human brain
- Just over 25 years after that, $1000 will get you a computer with the power of the entire current human race
- Importantly, smart machines have a feedback effect on the creation of future smart machines, as they contribute to the creation of the next generation of smart machines
- Robots are having a significant impact on industry, but their impact has been blunted somewhat by transitioning people from lower-skilled jobs as robots take them to higher skilled jobs
- Continuing developments in robot dexterity and sophistication combined with continuing developments in AI and computer hardware will have a more radical effect
- Machines are even cheaper than offshore labor, and we’ve already seen what an impact offshore labor has had on the manufacturing sector in North America; now imagine the impact of “off-peopling”
- We don’t, however, want to turn our backs on the benefits of robotics and AI; they promise great wealth for all, an end to menial jobs, and new opportunities for everyone
- What we need to address the issue is a two-pronged attack
- Ensure wealth from robot and AI labor can be distributed to all
- Consider a guaranteed basic income
- Ensure that humans can keep up with robots and AI in terms of physical abilities and intelligence, through ability augmentation and ability amplification