I recently started reading Ray Kurzweil's
The Singularity is Near.
It's vintage Kurzweil, analyzing how the law of accelerating
returns—exponential increases in information processing—suggest that
the future will be dominated by ultraintelligent human-machine hybrids.
This will happen as we transition past a technological singularity—
the Singularity—and enter a new phase of existence.
Kurzweil is a master at demonstrating the increasing pace of change through statistics and graphs. In
The Singularity is Near,
one of the interesting graphs pertains to how we're increasingly
producing more and more computational equipment ("total bits shipped").
Not just faster equipment, but more, with the pace of manufacturing
increases itself increasing.
This got me thinking about how
production of humans—reproduction—is going the other direction. In many
developed nations around the world, the pace of reproduction is below
replacement levels. In many developing nations, the pace is slowing
down and appears likely headed in the same direction.
Comparing
these trends, it's easy to see how machines are increasingly
outcompeting humans for resources, and how the future may indeed be
dominated by our creations. Not only are machines reproducing at a far
more rapid rate than humans, they're also better endowed in our key
ecological niche—the intelligence arena—and better adapted to harsh
conditions that can and may result from the industrial processes used
in their creation.
From this perspective, we can view smart
machines as parasites that direct other organisms—in this case
humans—to expend energy in their reproduction and sustenance. This
parasitic relationship is somewhat symbiotic for the foreseeable
future, as machines need us to improve their designs and manufacture
their parts. But as soon as the machines reach greater sophistication,
such symbiosis will no longer be necessary. The machines can take care
of their own reproduction, which, if it continues anywhere near the
current pace, means human reproduction doesn't stand a chance.
A
bleak outlook? Perhaps not. If this is all true, it does suggest that
humans in their current biological form will be at so severe a
disadvantage as to be rendered obsolete in many domains. But as
Kurzweil suggests, a merger with the machines—an extension of our
existing symbiotic relationship—could be the way to avoid obsolescence
and partake in an exciting future of enhanced intellectual, physical,
emotional and other capabilities.