Transhumanist philosopher
Nick Bostrom argues that there is about a 50% chance that humankind will be annihilated this century.
Bostrom, who is currently working with
Milan Ćirković
on a book about existential risks, has given the topic of human
extinction considerable attention, including his seminal 2001 paper,
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios.
Writing in
Global Agenda
magazine, Bostrom notes how potentially self-inflicted existential
risks have only recently appeared in human history, namely the advent
of the atomic bomb. Unfortunately, writes Bostrom, this is the first of
many other new threats on the horizon. He lists such potential problems
as a deliberately engineered pathogen, particle accelerator
experiments, molecular nanotechnology run amok, and runaway
superintelligence.
Bostrom also notes possible sociological
catastrophes, such as the advent of a repressive totalitarian regime or
a transhumanism that could "lead to stagnation and thorough debasement
of human life."
While pessimistic of our chances, Bostrom is not
defeatist, and he suggests that some serious foresight and energy be
put into the problem. "The magnitude of existential risks is not a
fixed quantity – it becomes larger or smaller depending on human
action," he writes. He says that deliberate steps can be made to reduce
many existential risks, noting such endeavors as the mapping of
potentially dangerous asteroids. Moreover, some of the studies and
countermeasures that would reduce existential risk would also be
relevant for mitigating lesser hazards, argues Bostrom.
Ultimately,
says Bostrom, the challenge is to neither ignore the risks nor to
indulge in gloomy despondency but to "seek understanding and to take
the most cost-effective steps to make the world safer."
Cross-posted from Sentient Developments.