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Physicists see an end to the universe, but not humanity
By Dick Pelletier
In Parallel Worlds, physicist Michio Kaku suggests that our expanding universe will one day grow cold and dark, losing its ability to sustain intelligence and life. This will not mean the end of humanity though; we will simply travel to a new, hopefully improved universe and continue our journey into forever.
If this sci-fi-sounding future is to become our destiny, how do we move from today’s crude world filled with threats of terrorism, pandemics, and crime into the futuristic existence that Kaku describes?
It may be a tough and arduous trip, but many forward-thinkers believe we can achieve this incredible future. Astronomer Nikolai Kardashev and other visionaries developed a scheme that divides our road to the future into four civilization types.
- Type-1 has mastered all terrestrial energy; they can modify weather, prevent earthquakes, conquer illness and death, and explore their entire solar system. They have eliminated religious and sectarian struggles that hampered their beginnings. If technologies continue advancing exponentially, Earth could reach this plateau by 2100.
- Type-2 mines all the energy from their sun and has established colonies in neighboring solar systems. They are virtually immune to extinction. Should technology advance rates increase aggressively, this lofty world could be ours by 2200.
- Type-3 controls all the energy from their galaxy. They manipulate space-time, make instant trips to anywhere in the universe, and can bring their dead back to life. Most physicists believe it will take thousands of years to achieve this level, but with an expected post-Singularity intelligence boom, this wonder-time could happen by 2300.
- Type-4 accesses all the power in their universe; they can even fashion new universes, endowing them with unique forces that support radically different intelligence and life concepts. These citizens fear nothing and are truly immortal. If all goes well, this god-like existence could be ours some time in the next millennium.
We are slowly moving towards these future scenarios. Advances in nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognitive science (NBIC), expected in the coming decades could eliminate all sickness, aging and death; and will usher in greater-than-human intelligence, which will increase continually in a never-ending cycle. Scientists call this “the Singularity”, an event horizon beyond which we cannot understand, but which will radically change our world.
We should soon find out if we’re going to make it to Type-1. Utopia or oblivion, there is no third way. If we learn how to survive the coming Singularity, then all problems that plague our planet will disappear. Idealistic dogma, hatred, greed, poverty, war, and selfishness will all be gone. Once we pass this level, it will be smooth sailing as we rush towards our incredible future.
Progress may seem slow, though, and in the background will always lurk the possibility of disaster. However, advancing NBIC could provide an unstoppable force that would minimize, or even eliminate all possibilities of failure.
When Newton first gazed at the vast, uncharted ocean of knowledge, he probably never realized that the chain reaction of events he and others initiated would one day affect all of modern society, eventually forging a planetary civilization about to scatter its populations to the stars. Go “magical future”.
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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Regenerative medicine could cure most diseases by 2020
By Dick Pelletier
A recent government report declared the next evolution of healthcare to be regenerative medicine. This announcement has prompted officials to create the Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine (FIRM) with an aggressive goal to provide tissues and organs “on demand” for every American by as early as 2020.
Derived from biology, biochemistry, physics, engineering and other fields, this technology can regenerate damaged tissues and organs in vivo (in the living body) by stimulating irreparable organs into healing themselves; and grow tissues and organs in vitro (in the laboratory) when the body cannot heal itself.
Regenerative medicine has the potential to cure cancer, diabetes, heart disease, kidney failure, osteoporosis, and spinal cord injuries. Potentially, this technology could cure any disease that results from malfunctioning, damaged, or failing tissues. With replaceable healthy tissues and organs readily available, doctors will save millions from suffering, illness and death.
Beyond obvious health benefits, regenerative medicine will also combat rising U.S. healthcare costs, which currently exceeds $1.5 trillion annually; most of which stems from recurring treatments for diseases arising from tissue failure, commonly seen in the elderly.
Officials make it clear that FIRM also offers an opportunity for the U.S. to remain at the forefront of regenerative medicine and not allow other countries to overtake us, as happened with the VCR, TV, automobile, and so many other “American” ideas. Already, Japan, European Union, China and Australia are planning government-supported regenerative medicine programs.
Led by top medical experts, FIRM hopes to repeat the successful formula that launched the Human Genome Project and the National Nanotechnology Initiative. FIRM will leverage government labs, funding mechanisms, and financial resources to give regenerative medicine a vision and purpose, and quickly bring its benefits to the American public.
While regenerative medicine is an inevitable evolution of science, without guidance and support the technology will take too long to mature. FIRM hopes to unravel its complexities and make it become reality within fifteen years.
America’s greatest natural resource is ingenuity, the report says. Coupled with funding and direction, our Nation can maintain its preeminence in biotech by paving the way to the future with the evolving world of regenerative medicine. By doing so, we will soon make tissue and organ failure a relic of our distant past.
However, some see a problem with older people living longer. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that federal spending for Social Security and Medicare will double by 2030; and fewer younger Americans will be around to foot the bill. While the number of seniors doubles, the number of working-aged people will grow by only 15%.
Advocates point out though, that incremental increase in today’s life expectancy has drastically changed the way we think and live. From Modern Maturity Magazine to octogenarians starting new companies, the gold watch at 65 already seems passé. Enthusiasts believe FIRM will keep people healthier as they age, requiring less need for financial support. Many will continue working; some will even begin new careers.
Regenerative medicine promises to bridge most people alive today into the “roaring 20s”, where medical nanobots will roam through our bodies keeping us forever healthy and youthful on this incredible trip towards a most “magical future”.
Learn more: http://www.hhs.gov/reference/FutureofRegenerativeMedicine.pdf
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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Optimistic glance at 45 year future
- 2006 – Forward-thinkers tout impending “magical future”, but most people not convinced.
- 2010 – Biotech revolution picks up steam; cloning tissues, organs, becomes routine.
- 2015 – Cancer and diabetes deaths eliminated.
- 2020 – Alzheimer’s, heart disease; most human ills conquered.
- 2025 – Medical nanobots eliminate aging, home replicators slash living costs.
- 2035 – Robots surpass human intelligence; human-machine merge begins, crime, ends.
- 2050 – Most people sport non-biological bodies with “immortal” transferable minds.
Comments welcome.
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Earth 2300 – ‘body-free’ life, space colonies, time travel
By Dick Pelletier
What will life be like 300 years from now? No one really knows for sure; in fact most all projections beyond 2050 are little more than guesses. However, by multi-tracking today’s science and technology advances, and mixing reality with a dash of imagination, we can create a plausible scenario of how the future could unfold.
Experts say available information doubles every decade. Thus, in 300 years, 30 decades from now, information will expand nearly 300 million times. This increase promises to bring about a world with awesome possibilities.
By 2300, humans are in complete command of their destiny. In early 2000s, biotech and nanotech advances eliminated disease and aging, which paved the way for human-machine merge. By mid-century, most people sported maintenance-free non-biological bodies with mind/memory systems that prevent unwanted death and disease.
During “the golden age of intelligence”, 2050-2100, the Internet morphed into a wireless “global brain” feeding information to enhanced minds, raising intelligence levels, and ending all human desires for wars and conquest. Fully immersive virtual reality enabled people to interact through simulations indiscernible from reality.
Projecting our “digital self” became easier and more effective than meeting physically. One could go anywhere instantly; even be in more than one place at a time. “Digital life”, with activities directed by our neurons stored in a safe haven, soon became the preferred method of existence.
By 2150, interacting in physical bodies had become passé; life was pretty much a ‘body-free’ world. This ability to live digitally later became an advantage with “wormhole” travel, which cannot transport physical matter.
Hyperspace engines, perfected in late 2000s, enabled faster-than-light speed travel, and with advanced nanotech to build facilities, helped establish hundreds of thriving communities on Mars and moon.
In mid-2200s, researchers developed energies necessary to harness wormholes, which enabled instant travel to vast distances. Explorers launched trillions of nanobots, which would find and terraform an ideal planet; make it human-compatible while preserving existing life; then send an all clear to Earth for humans to follow and inhabit.
These technologies fostered an exodus to space. In 2300, more humans live in space than on Earth. Because wormholes allow instant travel to anywhere in the galaxy, people do not feel isolated; loved ones and friends can visit as often as they like.
Our universe teems with many alien life forms, but explorers have yet to find beings with human-type intelligence. Experts do not believe we are alone though, some have posited that species far superior to us exist and could even be monitoring our activities; but in 2300, we see no evidence of their existence.
In 2290, scientists achieved the first successful wormhole transfer of information through time. Time travel specialists are now focusing on “paradox” issues: the past cannot allow any activity that changes the present. However, many believe this technology now makes it possible to retrieve lost loved one’s minds the night before they died and bring them into our time to resume their lives.
Forward-thinkers want to carry this concept even further; retrieve every human who ever died, all eight billion of them, and merge them into our civilization to help spread humanity’s “magical future” throughout the universe.
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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‘Human Mind Project’ hopes to change how we think
By Dick Pelletier
With the human genome sequenced; and neurobiology and cognitive science advancing exponentially, European scientists believe the time is ripe to launch an interdisciplinary research project on exactly what it means to be human.
This is the conclusion of experts led by University of Edinburgh’s Keith Stenning who chairs the ‘Human Mind Project’, an aggressive group with seventeen research projects already underway. Stenning believes that increased knowledge of the human mind could one day enable science to bring about more positive, less dangerous human thinking and behavior.
The project addresses the following areas of research: mind development, thought processes, motivation, decision-making, cultural context, and the genetics of cognition. Scientists will seek to understand how our species evolved with such a complex mind, how experiences influence development and aging of the brain, what motivates people to cooperate with or disregard others, and which behaviors stem from culture or nature.
The group started with conferences and discussions on “what it means to be human”, and now includes a series of grant-funded projects, each bringing together researchers from several disciplines and at least two EU Member States.
Technology alone cannot solve many of the problems humanity will face in the future. “We also need to change thinking and behavior if we are to create a better world out of the overcrowded, polluted and bustling global village we now inhabit”, the experts say. “Increased knowledge of the human mind will give us the power to make these changes”.
Human communication requires that we recognize each other’s intentions in order to cooperate or compete. This will be an extensive area of research for the group. Another area is reasoning. Here, the focus will be on how information-engineering approaches such as AI might interact with cognitive science to increase our intelligence.
A most important area of research includes infant helplessness, or altriciality. This refers to a distinctive aspect of biology, namely that human babies are born helpless; and must spend many years as “apprentices”, maturing and acquiring survival skills. This presents major consequences during development of the human mind/brain.
No other animal is so helpless at birth. Most are born with full adult size brains, humans come into the world with just 25 per cent of their mature brain.
Focusing on altriciality will help us understand how humans become social. If the first thing a baby sees is a smile, and if social cues are central to its survival, this shapes the way it learns to think about the world. During this time, an infant learns to manipulate adults by using its voice, even before it can control its arms.
Philosophers suggest that much of our uniqueness, from personality development to how we think about religion and mortality, unfolds during this time when our brain is growing. The group hopes to understand how altriciality affects whom we become later in life. This, they believe, could provide solutions for many adult psychological issues.
Better understanding of minds will help us identify and adopt changes in behavior necessary to maintain peace in a world of growing demands and shrinking natural resources. The Human Mind Project promises a safer and more “magical future” for everyone.
For more go to ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/nest/docs/nest_pathfinder_projects_en.pdf
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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Nanomedicine miracles could emerge by 2020
By Dick Pelletier
Famed physicist Richard Feynman in 1959 declared that we would one day learn to move individual atoms around, place them precisely where we want and bond them together. By doing this, we could build, tear apart, or modify any object made of atoms. This includes people: our bones, skin, organs, blood, even DNA.
Eric Drexler, in his 1980s book, Engines of Creation, was the first to coin the term “nanotechnology” for this remarkable new science, which he claims will one day allow us to repair physical damages sustained by the body. It will heal wounds, eliminate infections and cure diseases. Because each of these conditions is the result of atoms being in the wrong place, simply putting them back where they belong will solve the problem.
Nanotech pioneer, Robert A. Freitas, Jr, in his book Nanomedicine talks of developing tiny nanorobots that roam through our bodies, repairing all cell damage they discover. “The hard part is building the first one”, he says. “The road ahead is difficult, but at the end; indefinite extension of human health”.
Freitas compares nanomedicine development to the computer industry. “It took 50 years of market-driven research to bring computers to their present state”, he says. “We will see a similar, but far more rapid progression with nanomedicine”.
“More rapid because today’s nanomedicine scientists”, says writer John Robert Marlow in a recent Nanotech Now article, “enjoy at least three advantages over last century’s computing pioneers. First, they know what is possible; those working on computers were guessing; second, they employ supercomputers to aid with design, testing, safety and construction, and third, computers were a product in search of a market; nanomedicine is a multi trillion-dollar market waiting for products”.
“Using snippets of natural genomes, science is progressing with amazing speed”, Freitas says, “and it could produce bio-robots by 2010. Next will be hybrid robots built from engineered structural DNA, synthetic proteins, and other non-natural building materials. Finally, we will develop completely artificial, devices: tiny nanorobots capable of repairing every cell in the body – and, therefore, every disease and injury”.
If we define disease as something gone wrong with an otherwise healthy body, then aging; and indeed, “natural” death itself are diseases. Like disease, aging and death are in the genes. One might think this means we must unravel all genetic causes of aging to halt the process. It does not.
Scientific theories on aging agree on one thing: aging, and therefore “natural” death, occurs when the body’s cellular structure cannot repair damages. Nanotech allows us to repair damaged cells, eliminate disease and heal injuries. In addition, since aging is a result of accumulated cell damage – it will be possible to undo or reverse damages already inflicted. The young will remain young; the old will become young.
A Department of Defense report predicts, “If a breakthrough to an assembler (automated nanofactory) occurs between 2007 and 2012, an entirely new field of nanomedicine, including cell repair machines that perform genetic surgery will emerge by 2020”.
Nanomedicine promises to render today’s most exotic procedures commonplace; it will enable us to vanquish all ills, including unwanted “natural” death. Humanity will soon be enjoying an incredible “magical future”!
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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New hyperspace engine could roundtrip Mars in 5 hours
By Dick Pelletier
“Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the Mars Inter-Dimensional Express. In a few moments, our spacecraft will transfer into a parallel dimension where we will achieve greater than light-speed travel. As we get underway, be sure to glance out your window and watch the solar system flash by at dizzying speeds, truly, the most breathtaking views you will ever observe. Our expected arrival at Rattan Colony is noon Martian time”.
This scenario may sound like fantasy, but physicists, encouraged by recent interest in the work of German scientist Burkhard Heim, believe his hyperspace propulsion idea could become a proven concept within five years. Heim’s theory adds two forces to Einstein’s four-dimensional space-time: one, a repulsive anti-gravity force similar to dark energy that appears to expand the universe; the other force would accelerate spacecraft without using any fuel.
If Heim’s idea works, it will radically change space travel. Forget spending six months holed up in a rocket on the way to Mars, a round trip on the hyperdrive could take as little as five hours. Worries about astronauts’ muscles wasting away will disappear. What’s more, the device will put travel to the stars within reach for the first time.
The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics awards prizes for the best papers presented each year. Last year’s winner went to a paper authored by physicist Jochem Hauser, calling for experimental tests of Heim’s theory. “This hyperdrive motor”, Hauser said, “would propel a craft through another dimension at enormous speeds. It could reach a star eleven light years away in eighty days”.
The US government believes this theory could become reality; researcher Roger Lenard at Department of Energy’s Sandia National Laboratories says he can test the idea with their “Z” machine, which can generate the necessary field intensities and gradients. NASA and the Department of Defense are also expressing interest in hyperspace engines.
Enthusiasts believe our future lies in space. “Our job is to help life spread from this planet and make the rest of the universe as beautiful and varied as Earth”, said legendary physicist Freeman Dyson. “Dead worlds may be beautiful, just as deserts may be beautiful, but worlds full of life will give birth to a far wider range of beauty”.
Princeton’s J. Richard Gott III believes space colonization is necessary to prevent our species from becoming extinct. Although Homo sapiens have been around for 200,000 years, there is no guarantee of survival if we remain only on Earth. Colonies in space would provide insurance against catastrophes that could obliterate life on a single planet.
“Space colonies are an incredible bargain”, Gott says. “One only has to send a few astronauts. They then multiply at no further cost to us: the colonists do all the work, and colonies can establish other colonies”.
As we trek into our “magical future”, aided by technologies we cannot even imagine today, it is easy for this writer to believe that by 2150 or before, more humans could live in space than on Earth. We will always keep in touch with these hearty space pioneers, because sharing experiences of life in a strange new world will enrich us all.
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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Life in the 2030s – ageless bodies with zero failure rate
By Dick Pelletier
Imagine living in a body fashioned from non-biological “designer cells” that can never age or get sick, and sporting a mind that thinks trillions of times faster than today’s brains. Consider a world where we can alter our body shape and form at will; enjoy virtual reality entertainment indiscernible from reality, and control robots and machines using voice, or just thoughts.
Though these scenarios may seem too futuristic to be plausible even in the next 50 years, experts believe that NBIC (nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognitive science) will advance exponentially in the coming decades and make this future happen by the 2030s.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil, in The Singularity is Near classifies how our bodies will evolve in the future. Today’s frail “human body version 1.0” has a high failure rate – over 50 million are expected to die this year. Biotech and nanotech revolutions will provide a more durable and capable “version 2.0” over the next two decades, which will lower death rates substantially.
This will bring us to “version 3.0”, an amazing shape-shifting nano-assisted body created with non-biological cells, boasting a zero failure rate. Kurzweil says “3.0” could be available as early as the 2030s. “We will still look human”, he says, “but given how easy these bodies can be changed, ideas of what constitutes beauty will expand, and since we can easily reverse changes, there will be lots of experimentation”.
Because we could change into any look – male, female, black, white, young, or old, even non-human, identification will focus on names and minds, not bodies. This will take some getting used to, but with trillions of times more thinking power, we will quickly adjust and learn to enjoy our new futuristic world.
Ramez Nam creator of Microsoft Outlook in his book, More Than Human, says not everyone will opt for these radical changes. Some will want simply to stay as they are, while others will choose to transform. Humanity will expand, splinter, and blossom. Descendants whom we might not even recognize will one day populate the world. Yet they will all think, love and dream just as we do today.
Our future entertainment world will be breathtaking. “By 2030, nanobots, connected to neurons, will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality”, Kurzweil says. “For real reality, ‘bots will remain idle; to enter a simulation; they will suppress inputs from actual senses and replace them with signals appropriate for the virtual environment. Our brain will experience these signals as if they were from our physical body”.
Another possibility, Kurzweil adds, is the “experience beamer”. We could send sensory experiences with emotions to the Internet for people to share, like the premise of the movie Being John Malkovich. A popular pastime would be to plug into someone else’s program and experience what it is like to become that person.
Life in the 2030s will affect everything from the way we date to the way we work, from how we think and act to how we fall in love. Will this “magical future” become reality? Experts say with the help and insights of gifted thinkers and scientists, these developments will become reality in our lifetime.
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments always welcome. See other published work by Dick at http://www.positivefuturist.com
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Indefinite lifespan possible in 30 years, experts say
By Dick Pelletier
British Telecom’s Futurologist Ian Pearson claims that biotech and nanotech advances expected over the next three decades will be sufficient for us to make a realistic stab at ending death. “Unless one is unfortunate enough to die from accident or disease, many alive today have a good chance of not dying at all”, he says.
Others agree. In a recent 60 Minutes television interview, famed anti-aging scientist Dr. Aubrey de Gray claimed that gene-mapping success would produce: drugs tailored to individual needs, gene therapies to cure hereditary disease, and stem cells that rejuvenate organs.
“First generation therapies will give us, maybe thirty extra years of healthy lifestyle”, de Gray said. “New therapies will add another thirty or fifty years; keeping us one-step ahead of the grim reaper”. He adds, “What I’m after is not living to 1,000; I just want people to avoid death for as long as they want to”.
Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says, “Aging is a biochemical process and humans will soon learn how to intervene”. When asked if long life would become boring, Bostrom replied, “It will certainly be more exciting than being dead. Our lives will be as boring or exciting as we make them”.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil, on a November 15, 2005 C-Span broadcast confirmed that we are in early stages of profound revolutions spawned by the intersection of biotech, infotech, and nanotech. “Soon”, Kurzweil says, “biotech upgrades will add more than a year of life expectancy each year”.
“How much of your body software have you upgraded in the last 30 months”, Kurzweil asks. “We have these 23,000 software programs called genes we haven’t changed in 30,000 years. Fat receptor genes say; hold on to calories because the next hunting season may not work out. That was good strategy 30,000 years ago, but today, it causes obesity”.
When asked if these changes would make us non-human, Kurzweil replied, “No, we will remain human. I don’t like the word Transhumanist, which is commonly used to describe these ideas, because it means going beyond being human; I think we’ll go beyond biology, but it’s inherent in the nature of being human to go beyond our limitations”.
Although these technologies will eliminate disease and aging, they cannot protect us from accidents and violence. To prevent all unwanted deaths, forward-thinkers believe we need to replace biological cells with non-biological “immortal” ones; then devise brain-transfer systems.
In a recent Observer interview, Pearson stated, “If you draw timelines, realistically we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it’s not a major career problem”.
Recent brain scan research at Howard Hughes Medical Research Institute offers hope that this futuristic technology could one day capture memories and intelligence for transfer into safe storage, and then be uploaded into to a new body should disaster strike.
Get ready for a long, exciting life. As mentioned previously, by 2015, household robots will satisfy our every whim; by 2025, nano-replicators will provide food and clothing at little or no cost. So, stay healthy the old-fashioned way for a few more years; then kick back and enjoy this “magical future”.
This article will appear in various print media and on-line blogs. Comments welcome. See additional published work by this author at http://www.positivefuturist.com.
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