Optimistic glance at 45 year future

I don't see how tissue and organ cloning can become routine in only 4 years. I have not seen any research or FDA testing to show that type of biotechnology is anywere near ready for routine use. I adjusted your timeline to what I feel is a more realistic.


* 2025 – Biotech revolution picks up steam; cloning tissues,organs becomes routine.
* 2030 – Cancer and diabetes deaths eliminated.
* 2040 – Alzheimer’s, heart disease; most human ills conquered.
* 2070 – Medical nanobots eliminate aging, home replicators slash living costs.
* 2100 – Robots surpass human intelligence; human-machine merge begins, crime, ends.
* 2205 – Most people sport non-biological bodies with “immortal” transferable minds.

This is suspiciously shorter than your usual pieces.

"2006 – Forward-thinkers tout impending “magical future”, but most people not convinced."

We all have a right to be skeptical of a near-term "magical future".

Human history has always experienced unexpected advances and setbacks. The future will be no exception. The unpredictability of human nature has ensured that things don't run so smoothly as some "forward-thinkers" have you to believe.

If you've read "Radical Evolution", especially Jaron Lanier's "Prevail" scenario, you would know what I'm talking about here. People who tout seductive "Heaven" and "Hell" scenarios recieve nothing but extreme skepticism from me and almost everyone else. Human beings, as they are now, are unpredictable and make mistakes. Therefore, we decide how new technologies are handled.

Hey, Futuretalk is an optimist, enough said.

Realfuture's timeline seems plausible to an individual with a non scientific background such as myself.

Adbatstone's post begins with a personal attack.

Business as usual then?

I understand that Futuretalk is working hard to convince people that a "magical future" is in our sights and I respect him for that, but most of us here have seen evidence that proves otherwise (government regulation, human behaviour, lack of funding, etc.). He simply has more faith in our society than we have.

I, personally, have seen little to no evidence that the "biotechnology revolution" will suddenly appear by 2010. Biotech, like all other fields, has to go through a rigorous testing and feasibility process before the fruits of the technology appear on pharmacy shelves and in health clinics.

The most remotely possible - and indeed the only - way of seeing the magical future is, and remains, cryonics.

By not signing up for cryonic suspension, you are taking an exceptional gamble. At 75, it's highly unlikely, if not impossible, that biotechnological interventions will come in time to save you from dying. I woudn't even bet on it for today's twenty-year-olds.

It's for your own good, Dick. And everyone else reading this. It's unpleasant I know, but realistically most of the 21st century will be too little advanced to bring about advanced increases in lifespan or reversal of the aging process (which I would put at 2100 or later).

My apologies, particularly to Futuretalk, for the abrupt nature of my previous post - I was supposed to be working ;).

Here goes.

Realfuture:

I reiterate that your projection seems reasonable. But that dosen't mean squat. Look at all the instances in the past of predictions being ridiculously out of kilter in terms of optimism and pessimism, I'm not gonna repeat them - that would be boring. Ok, I'll mention just one: any human being travelling at more than 25 miles per hour would surely suffocate blah blah blah.

Thanks for your input though.

It really is nice that you can just pop out of nowhere and adjust Dick's timetable in a fashion that would suggest mind control/someone's hand up your backside (puppet style). How about you introduce yourself to the rest of us. We, for the most part, (i.e. other than myself and Adbatstone) are a pleasant bunch.

Adbatstone:

No, you don't respect Dick, frantic backpedalling notwithstanding. Your initial post drips with disrespect and sarcasm.

The rest of your post is reasonable enough and Im trying REAL HARD to respect you for the strength of your convictions.

Drop the attitude.

It's nice that you realise what Futuretalk is trying to do i.e. be a catalyst. All power to him and to all of us brave enough to strive for something as incredible and exceptional as Dick's "magical future" regardless of timelines.

Many experts claim that a nanofactory-prototype could be built in the next 10-12 years., and a workable factory by 2020. Among the people visuallizing this is Robert Freitas, Eric Drexler and Ralph Merkle.

Even Adriano Cavalcanti thinks medical nanobots could be reality by 2015( in about 9 years). Many of the people predicting these technologies are very well educated, and actually works in fields creating them. So I believe them more than anyone who just says:
"ok, 2075 sounds plausible for nanobots".

The promise of nanofactories are truly amazing and the benefits for the social and medical wellfare are huge, and that is why I think the field is moving more rapidly than most of us think. But there are dangers as well...

Dick,

Regardless of the accuracy of these predictions, you REALLY should get a cryonics contract in place. No one, regardless of their age, knows when they will die. Even if you are in perfect health, you could be in a car accident, catch a particularly nasty illness, or slip in the bath. There are a LOT of things beyond your (or anyone's) control that can end a life.

You are obviously a very optimistic person. The world needs more of them. Leaving your chances of making it to the magical future you envision in the hands of fickle fate is dangerous and illadvised.

You know, its not a "betrayal" of your optimism to take the precaution of having a cryonics contract as insurance. It's just good sense.

I'd like to have a pint with you some day a 100 years from now while we're sitting in a cafe on Mars and we both look 20 (or 25 or whatever we choose.)

Hope to see you there.

Dick,

In your response you said, "The “I’m OK” position that my body assumes is a direct result of programming from my brain. This includes the power to prevent serious illnesses and accidents..."

You honestly believe that positive thinking can prevent accidents?? How could you possibly think that? How does YOUR positive thinking prevent someone in another car from doing something stupid that leads to an accident that kills you??

Besides, infants and very young children (who don't even have a CONCEPT of death yet) are killed in accidents all the time. It just doesn't make logical sense to think that by being optimiistic alone you can prevent your death. Ever hear of FM2030???

I'm not trying to attack you...but egads man, using your logic, you don't need a parachute if you jump out of a plane at 10,000 feet, just positive thinking will do.

Ok, I guess we just agree to disagree. Good luck.