David Kekich : The Problem... Population Size. The Solution... SuperLongevity

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David Kekich

The Problem... Population Size. The Solution... SuperLongevity

Dear Future Centenarian,

Can super longevity solve, rather than create a population problem?

Consider these points edited from a paper presented several weeks ago by Herb Meyer at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Mr. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.

Some of His Conclusions

Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the economy. When you don't have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them.

In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60 million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old.

The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be smaller than that of Yemen.

Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics. Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world's major economic engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen.

When the birth rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse.

These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held in regard to having families and raising children. The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7.

In the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of trend.

The world's most effective birth control device is money. As society creates a middle class and women move into the workforce, birth rates drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living. The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development.

Pretty sobering, isn’t it? So what’s the solution? Longevity… and lots of it. Keep the elderly alive, healthy and productive. Keep them out of retirement, hospitals and nursing homes where they drain resources, and have them contribute to the economy when they are at the peak of their productive capacity.

David A. Kekich

Maximum Life Foundation

714-960-6333/Fax 714-464-4135

kekich@maxlife.org

www.MaxLife.org

"Where Biotech, Infotech and Nanotech

Meet to Reverse Aging by 2029"

Published Sunday, July 13, 2008 5:07 AM by David Kekich

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Comments

aldersondrive2007 wrote on July 15, 2008 10:17 PM

Best new in 20 billion years!

Back in 1970, my high school math teacher gave a rather startling example of exponential growth rates in mathematics.

At the present (cira 1970) birth rate, it would take 6500 years for ALL THE MATTER IN THE UNIVERSE TO BE CONVERTED INTO HUMAN FLESH! An absolutley idiotic idea to believe we could do that withoug major consequence indeed!

over, perhaps, one trillion galaxies converted. But all the matter in the universe includes all the interstellar hydrogen between the stars and galexies as well, which made up 90% of the assumed mass of the universe (with dark matter, maybe we could have an extra 20 doublings, which puts us at 7100 years before exhausting the universe..Oh Big Deal!!).

What is happening on Earth, or at least in some nations, will, hopefully happen to the rest of humanity over the next half century (more or less), and the calapsing birth rate means that human beings will be worth more as individuals, monetarily as well as all the really important reasons we are valuable. This higher value will also increase the incentive to develope radical life extension and make it easily available to all who want it.

" With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people."

Not really. Fewer working people will cause the cost of labor to rise, i.e. wages. Once again, I will cite statistics from the 14th and 15th centuries with regard to labor supply and demand effecting wages.

In England, the population dropped by one third, but wages rose by multiples of the inverse of the decrease, i.e. the inverse of .666666 is 1.5, but wages rose by 2 to 4, not 1.5.

Even if the result of a slower decrease as opposed to a puncuated equilibriam resulted in only a doubling of real wages, than that results in a painless doubling (or more) of tax revenues per working person. It would be possible that total income would rise.

Also, the higher wages because of a labor shortage would encourage many retirees to supplement thier income by returning to work either full or part time. They work, and pay back into the system.

A labor shortage will encourage even more investment in technology, which will be paid for by the savings of people with higher income and, in many cases, few or no kids (remember DINK?). This could have a feed back effect, more productivity, more income.

One reason why real incomes have failed to rise in America is because we have externalized the cheap labor supply, by moving plants to other countries instead of investing here.

None the less, I do believe that just like South Korea, a declining birth rate will create incentives for other governments to take life extension research seriously!

Proud to be a 52 year old childless man who is contributing positively to the best trend in 20 billion years!

**********************************************************************

After note.

Why do I say best news/trend in 20 billion years? Because what is happening here on Earth now means that in all probability, the universe is safe from becoming just more human flesh filling the space that would otherwise have stars and galaxies.

Also, the trend on Earth is in all probability the reason that we don't see any evidence of civilization outside of Earth. They are probably there, but don't need to expand into galactic empires fashioned after our perverse "Roman" like fantasies of a human empire gobbling up the universe.