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Afn

What if Ray Kurzweil is correct?

I consider myself a techno utopian. I grew up around technology and I have to admit that 2006 technology is much better than 1992 technology. So what if Mr. Kurzweil is correct? Is the singularity near?

I think it is. We have experienced more change the last 20 years than in the last 100 years. The World Wide Web experience for most people is under 10 years old. Video on demand through the Internet is possible because the peer-to-peer networks, and most people have downloaded high-quality video segments within the last few years. Video on demand over a common telephone wire or cable connection was impossible in 1992. Something amazing is happening.

Age of spiritual machines correctly pointed out that computer technology with sufficient artificial intelligence could cognitively compete and outperform human intelligence. Just by using simple loops, for next decision trees, and select case statements it is possible theoretically to automate programming and let the computer manage its processes. We are not at this level of AI or automated intelligence, but as Mr. Kurzweil pointed out the singularity is near. How fast we will get self programming computers depends on how many people are interested in the self programming concept and how connected together they are to make it happen.

Every week there is new information, new stories that challenge the basic fabric of reality. It in this week alone I read about how cancer is affected by a single gene called P53 and how this gene is modified. Although I do not smoke, I have been around people who smoke and no one wants to get cancer from smoking. There is a connection between gene mutations in the p53 protein related to cigarette smoking that may play a role in the development of certain cancers.

More interesting than P53 was the knowledge that DNA and RNA are controlled by a new process which is now being scientifically understood. This might be the basis for how DNA and RNA create, modify, and control various proteins and molecules needed for the proper functioning of human biology. It is interesting to note that the New York Times broke the story, but KurtzweilAI.net gave critical information without having to read the original story. Thanks to RSS I never had to pay for or read the New York Times.

Goodbye technology, goodbye publishing, hello singularity!

If the singularity is not advancing technology, tech is definitely getting better. I desperately need to believe that technology will have a utopian payout within or before the next 50 years.That science, good science, good open-source science will save the world from internal collapse. Open source science is not motivated by capitalist greed and and/or socialist ideas but is, "post-ism". That we once and for all, create a society that technologically delivers to every citizen a model life.

Advances made in open source software are now filtering over into commercial software like Dragon naturally speaking. Nuance, the company that owns Dragon NaturallySpeaking, is behind an open source platform for SR. Development of technology increases when people work together to solve a common problem. SR accuracy is a human problem.

Accurate text-to-speech synthesis will allow organizations to create products that deliver technological advantage at a lower cost. Because the science behind the technology needed to create a product was developed open-source, less cost is incurred in development because the information and costs are shared.

We may ultimately have to write off millions of people before a select few receive the first treatments that radically extend human life. I suggest we have a scaled system that allows the people that have been not given an excellent life are given the opportunity through singularity science to have a nice car, a small but functional house, the opportunity to create kids who are safe from domestic terrorists aka "bullies" and give adults without any access to good paying jobs the right to create and support a family.

I would like to live in a world where technology worked to help people,and our social systems worked to give everyone in our society great jobs. Where our political system moved to scientific governance and where everyone was treated with respect and everyone is given opportunity because opportunity becomes a scientific process and a basic right.

Hopefully in the next 50 years we will have clinical regenerative medicine to turn back the clock and give every citizen a life worth living. (Not just the few that have the good life today.)

Published Tuesday, August 08, 2006 4:56 AM by Afn

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Mr. Farlops wrote on August 8, 2006 2:17 PM

For me it's not merely a question of technical feasability.

I agree:

* Aging will be cured. Rejuvenation will be achived.

* Artificial life will become commonplace.

* Strong AI is possible and will be achived.

* Superhuman intelligence by indivdually and collective will happen.

* Molecular manufacturing and the most advanced forms of nanotechnology will ubiquitous.

* Solar energy will be cheap, powerful and common. Fusion energy will one day be harnessed.

* Our civilization will spread out to the solar system and then, at last, to the stars.

* Post-humanity will arrive.

But.

Unlike Kurzweil, I don't think these things will usher in some kind of utopia. Compliants, controversies and disasters as yet undreamed of will arrive with all these achivements.

It will be a mixed bag. It won't all be horrible. It won't all be sweetness and light. It will be a confusing and intractibly mixed mess and magic. The problems of old will be solved only to be replaced by new problems as yet unconceived.

I could be wrong. Maybe utopia is coming. No one will be more pleasently surprised than I.

But I doubt it.

 

EschewObfuscation wrote on August 8, 2006 4:11 PM

Not to mention, as regards the schedule, that Kuzweil just brushes off potential delays like regulation, peak oil, global warming, Moore's Law not operating perfectly, software not catching up with hardware, (insert a hundred other things).

 

aldersondrive2007 wrote on August 9, 2006 12:51 AM

A couple of bottlenecks might exist, like I work in a company and have worked in others in which the I.T. department is basically out of touch with the working realities of the people who have to deal with using the software ( the difference between writting the software and using it).

In the real world, alot of the software is still being done the old fashion way and very few I.T. people (that I have personally talked to on our internal help line ) have much idea about the concept of genetic algorithms and self evolving A.I..

I am almost certain that for a few million dollars at most, it would be possible to evolve a better version of the software we use at my company, but there are political reasons that it won't. The programmers would be slow to accept a new paradigm.

I might be wrong, but I think that the idea of evolving a new program that is a hundred billion times better than the smartest human computer programmer could achieve would present a potential internal political problem in I.T..

But, take Niel Gershenfeld's Fab Lab and than combine that with John Koza's invening machine, and we might start seeing some serious acceleration for sure!

Bring the software writting and manufacturing out of the ivory tower and onto the desktop and/or garage, and a major bottleneck will quickly vanish.  

Also, smart help menus or even computer programs that can talk as intellegently as was depicted in the early Star Trek series can bring the benefits of the pre-singularity to children in the American ghetto, the slums of the Phillapines, the Bushmen children in South Africa(Oh! the South African government is taking the idea of fab labs real seriously, by the way!) and even the 80-something seniors who have never used a computer up to now! In otherwards, the 95% of human imagination that isn't being fully utilized right now.

Than, I think, we will start really moving forward!

 

Mr. Farlops wrote on August 9, 2006 2:17 AM

After I get my copy of Seidensticker's book *Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change* from the library and have read it, I was planning to write a blog essay or two here about the bottlenecks for technical progress. I attended a lecture of his several months ago and find many of his points interesting and relevent to this discussion about Vingian singularities.

Aldersondrive makes a good point about software engineering being still in its infancy. I think that's one of the points Seidensticker addresses in his book. He should know a little bit about this because he worked for several years for Microsoft and other software companies. Familiarity breeds contempt.

 

Afn wrote on August 9, 2006 10:22 AM

The singularity will not be achieved overnight nor will it bring a wonderful utopia.  Regenerative medicine holds the promise to create new organs, new teeth, to make the deaf and hard of hearing  achieve perfect hearing and much more.  The promise of regenerative medicine is going to bring about a medical utopia if regenerative medicine as a technology is perfected.

We are living in amazing times.  Technology always moves faster than the political social and economic systems.  We are on the cutting edge, future-hype or no future-hype.  We are definitely seeing advancement. I do not think in my lifetime I will see super intelligent computers 100,000 times smarter than a single human.  Better ways of using programming to achieve useful everyday human goals might be achieved and systematically networked. (Is email smarter than a single human? Is a router?)

We are going to have nanotechnology in a few years that will revolutionize the production of things.  If you work in a service industry you may not see the exponential change.  However, tremendous social and economic change  will occur when nanotechnology, regenerative medicine, biosynthesis, cheap energy and nano engineered molecules and chemicals build cellular systems that in turn create not just better humans, but near perfect ones!

Sony Corp. is planning to have humanoid robots as a mass-market in or around in 20 years.  If we do not witness the singularity, our future children will definitely have to deal with the technological consequences of nanotechnology, regenerative medicine, bioengineered synthetic biology and the end of oil and hopefully, replacement to nanoengineered solar and greatly extended human lifespans. (When human life expectancy increases the cost of  real estate will triple.)

We can solve many problems in our society, in the world if we went to a single global income for adults.  What happens when nanotechnology and regenerative medicine combined with computer processing power reverse engineer human biology in less time than it was expected to be reversed engineered in? (Ray Kurzweil expected the brain to be reversed engineered by 2099.) Combined with the other factors we are in for some very interesting times if we can just pay the rent to the landlord and hope to to find useful work that can not be done by a computer or industrial robot.

 

Mr. Farlops wrote on August 9, 2006 10:40 PM

Afn wrote, "Regenerative medicine holds the promise to create new organs, new teeth...."

Yeah, I've read about the teeth regeneration thing. Any progress reports on how close that is to actual dental therapy? Listen, if they can just crack that nut, I'd be in utopia--

At least for a while.

 

Afn wrote on August 10, 2006 9:41 AM

I would think in about 15 to 20 years we will have dental regeneration. Hearing regeneration will also be possible.  I do not know if you can take an aged mouse and insert some cells and make organs young again, but the science to repair DNA and RNA and reinsert corrected cells into a body may be the path to radical life extension.

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